Author Archives: Cadence

Commodity Markets Trading With Technical Analysis

Commodity trading is best done with the help of technical analysis. Technical analysis shows a trader the direction; he should take while dealing with commodities. Whether one should buy or sell is best determined with the help of Technical Analysis. A good trading system will always incorporate methods used in TA within itself.

Technical Analysis Defined

The process of determining the condition of a commodity (based on the historic price) with the help of charting is called Technical Analysis. It combines probability mathematics and statistical information to determine the future price movement of a commodity with probability on your side. For example, if someone were to walk up to a door, and you were told to guess which direction they would go – left or right, whatever you chose, it would be speculation. On the other hand, if they went left, and you followed them, that would be called trend following. Similarly, if a commodity future moves in a direction and you use TA to guide you, you can buy it after it shows a move into a certain direction, and a trend has been confirmed.

Uses Of Technical Analysis

There are many ways TA helps traders in trading commodities. The primary principle in TA is to have the ability to follow trends. To be able to do this, one has to be able to catch it early enough. So, you can buy into a commodity if you can confirm that it is in an uptrend. The key point to remember is that TA assumes that price discounts everything.

All movements of market participants are reflected in the price of any commodity at any given point in time. The idea is to buy low and sell high, or vice versa. This sounds simple in theory, but is difficult enough in real life. Imagine knowing that the probability of a commodity will breakout on the upside, but also that it is only a probability, and not a surety.

How Do We Use Technical Analysis?

TA has many different theories. These include common theories and indicators such as moving averages, Fibonacci series, oscillators, Gann theory, Elliot wave theory, and the age-old Candlestick theory from Japan. Many users tend to combine one or more of these theories to get greater accuracy in determining the trend more correctly in their favor. One has to remember that probability needs to be on our side.

The risk to reward ratio should always be in our favor. A lot of people use TA to help them establish a trend, get the point of a breakout and look for a point to buy or sell a commodity. They also use it to determine their stop-loss, and possible target price. This is an advantage that TA has over any other form of analysis. Being mathematical in nature, it gives you exact figures as to what levels you need to enter and exit a commodity.

Transportation Management System: Choosing a Logistics Resource

For the average shipper, the cost of freight transportation is second only to the cost of payroll. Consequently, when a shipper needs to increase its bottom line, reducing the cost of freight transportation is one of the first considerations. There are two keys to achieving a cost-effective shipping process: the correct selection and correct management of shipping arrangements, both of which require a logistics resource. There are three types of logistics resources for managing a shipping system:

  • In-house logistics department -A shipper that operates its own fleet typically uses this resource. Due to the capital required to maintain the department, implementing a logistics department is often unfeasible for small and midsize shippers.
  • Third Party Logistics (3PL)– Also known as freight brokers, 3PL providers negotiate shipping arrangements between shippers and carriers. 3PL can be less expensive than maintaining a logistics department, but it still involves paying logistics professionals.
  • Freight transportation software– Freight transportation software can supply the logistical solutions that are traditionally supplied by a logistics department or 3PL provider. From a cost perspective, freight transportation software is the most economical logistics resource.

With the emergence of Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions for the shipping industry, the popularity of logistics software has increased. The software can also be implemented on an in-house model, but implementing it on a SaaS model eliminates the costs of installing and maintaining in-house software.

The Goals of Transportation Management

Positioned between the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system and the shipping process of a company, a Transportation Management System (TMS) has three goals:

  • Plan the shipping process, including carrier and transportation mode selection, rate selection, and load and route optimization.
  • Monitor the shipping process, including cost control, quality control, and tracking of vehicles along the shipping route.
  • Measure key performance indicators, including monetary productivity, cost per metric, and percentage of on time deliveries.

These goals can be accomplished by an in-house logistics department, a 3PL provider, or with freight transportation software. As it considers these options, the shipper must consider how much it needs to economize on the logistics resource, and whether it wishes to manage the shipping process, or have it managed by another party.

As mentioned above, freight transportation software is the most economical logistics resource. It is also a resource that puts the shipper in control of the shipping process, something that 3PL does not do. For businesses that wish to outsource the shipping process, 3PL is the ideal choice. For businesses that wish to manage the shipping process without creating a logistics department, freight transportation software is the best choice.

Conclusion

A transportation management system is an integral subset of supply chain management, one that influences the cost and quality of the shipping process. Logistics software provides shippers with a way to manage freight transportation economically, without sacrificing management quality. To learn more about the benefits of freight transportation software, contact a provider of SaaS logistical solutions today.

Commodity Trading Tips, Golden Trading Tips and Guidelines of Do’s and Don’ts in Commodity Markets

Historically, commodity trading has delivered the biggest fortunes worldwide. It originated centuries ago, even before the stock markets came into existence, albeit traded then in a different manner, than as seen today on electronic exchanges. I have often quoted that ” If trading in the speculative markets, then Stocks & Equities is for boys but Commodities & Forex is for men” (No gender bias intended). Wealth creation is not a matter of chance. It is a process that needs sharp analysis & a lot of work time. Plan your play and then play your plan. Happy investing!

The similarity in Stocks & Commodities begins & ends at the point that they are both speculative trade markets, but there are a lot many differences in both these markets. Unlike the stock markets where even a highly valued stock could eventually see all it’s commercial-value being eroded due to several reasons, the values of commodities may see corrections on a large supply but eventually will only increase again with time, as the inherent imbalance in the demand and supply ratio would always favor demand more than supply due to many influencing factors like growing populations, rising economies and better lifestyles to name a few. All adverse scenarios like geo-political tensions, wars, climatic imbalances, catastrophes and other man-made disasters, etc. which pull the stock markets down generally push the commodities up (especially Agro-Commodities & safe haven instruments like Gold), basically due to the differentiating factor that these commodities generally are also regular necessities to normal life and not simply investment instruments. Most Commodities are traded globally & the price rigging in these is next to impossible unlike, as seen in a lot of equity instruments where manipulation is a lot easier & occurrences of traders getting duped are rampant.

Massive wealth creation is possible through Commodity Trading & Investments if done the right way & with a lot of strict discipline. But if done the wrong way, which is generally the most followed path, there will be enormous losses also. You can start off equity trading or investment with smaller sums of money, but would require deeper pockets to be able to do some modest trading in the Commodity Exchanges & also to sustain the “Mark to Market” volatility in the Commodity Markets. The gains & losses in both also become proportionately big or small eventually. I would now like to highlight some basic Do’s & Don’ts for the most frequently seen habits & maybe unknowingly committed mistakes, which I have noticed in most traders & had to address to a number of times as a Market Analyst & a Commodity Market Trade Advisor.

1] Do not trade with hesitance, half heartedly or in over confidence. You may incur small but repeated losses if you are scared of the markets or heavier ones if you are overtly brave and foolhardy.

2] Be patient when your trade positions are moving in the right expected direction to extract maximum gains and ensure the gains by improvising the stop-loss level, time and again. Do not be pessimistic here or else you may book gains pre-maturely & may later repent on exiting early. This may lead to keeping on re-entering the same trade at further levels & repeatedly exit at small reversals in panic, which in turn would erode earlier small gains & also build losses. It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong & that makes all the difference between Winners & Losers.

3] Do not be over optimistic when trades have hit the suggested stop-loss levels and make sure you exit there. You may miss better and multiple opportunities on being stuck in deals gone wrong leading to higher and higher losses each day.

4] Do not discuss your open positions with one and all. This will lead you nowhere and confuse you more, as all would air their own views on the same (whether knowledgeable or not) and many a times, would make your trade decisions seem as foolishly and hastily taken. If only you would have consulted them earlier…

5] Do not develop a tendency of being a Bull or a Bear in these markets. There is only one side to the markets and that is neither the Bull side nor the Bear side – But ONLY the Right Side at the Right Time. Trend is King, so follow it at all times.

6] Realize that you are in a bad situation and exit fast when you need to pray for relief at each rise or fall in a trade which is leading you further in a deep pit towards heavier losses.

7] Follow ONLY one Analyst’s or Technical Advisor’s guideline at a time, as more guidelines will again create a lot of confusion. You can opt for or look out for an alternate guidance when the earlier guideline proves to be less productive or loss making, but not simultaneously.

8] Be honest to yourself as hoping or praying for something different, than the actual reality or situation is nothing less than fooling your own self.

9] There is NOTHING such as HUGE, mind-blowing and sky-high profit makings overnight, as assured by many to win a prospective client. YES, there are sizeable gains and high returns for a disciplined trader and may return exactly the opposite, if not worse, for the non-disciplined. Do not enter this trade market under any illusions of getting to be a Billionaire overnight. It will never happen. In fact all that you now possess may also be lost.

10] DO NOT BORROW or trade with funds that are not yours or pump in more funds by borrowing to hold on to loss making trades. Trade only with own funds that are spare-able and be prepared mentally in losing even that in totality, in the worst case.

11] Never trade or enter / exit positions in panic. Volatility is a non-separable component of this trade market and will be present most of the times.

12] Do not be a party to rumors or be guided or misled by these. Verify & double-check on the source for genuineness.

13] Stay away from the people who have a habit of saying “I had told you – See now?”. These are the very same people who would never put anything on paper or ever trade on their own views- with their own funds, as in reality they do not have any concrete views or knowledge. They are mere sponges on an ego trip, who keep soaking or gathering tidbits of information from anywhere available irrespective of their reliability, put all together and spread the newly formed news. If what they say goes wrong, they would disappear and would be seen nowhere or if found, might now have some stronger views and reasons for why the wrong happened as generally these kind of people are very good convincers & are blessed with the gift of gab. Listening to these characters and their views is very dangerous. As the wise always said: – “Half knowledge is always the most dangerous”, “Ignorance is Bliss” and “Blessed are the fully knowledgeable”.

14] DO NOT TRY to be the TREND SETTER or the first one to know where a particular trade will turn from. No one can possibly be, except by a sheer matter of chance, the best seller or the best buyer – so why try it? You might end up losing a lot of money and also becoming the laughing-stock for all. Follow the trend and make respectable gains, “Quietly”.

15] Do not enter the Commodity Markets with Stock Market trading ideas. Though both are speculative trade markets, there is a substantial difference in both and generally have opposite trading patterns and thumb rules, as elaborated earlier.

16] Providing past performance records is not a mandatory rule for Analysts or Advisors, and the same info (wherever posted) can be misleading, as the same can be manufactured by the end of day to dupe prospective clients. Do not try to look for something that can misguide you & lead you on the wrong path, ending up in losses – money-wise & also confidence-wise. Upon subscription by the trader, the same people showing fantastic results on their websites, but performing poorly in real-time, may later not be available even for a discussion or may later say that “Past performances are not an assurance of any future success”. So take a Trial for a fortnight or a month (not for a day or two), do some live paper trading & only trust the live performances. Judge the genuineness of the research quality and real-time trading support only on the basis of live experience and not by past performance records. Most of these records could be fakes. Better to pay for the Trial & come to the right conclusion, rather than loose a lot of capital by trading on faith generated by looking at & getting impressed by the past performances.

17] “Trading without a Stop-Loss & yet making gains is sheer Talent – Not trying such stunts is Intelligence”. The stop-loss practice is for your own benefit as this provision has utmost importance and is not provided on each trading ticket by the exchanges, just for the heck of it. If the trades turn & move in the opposite directions beyond entry levels, they might further move very fast in a volatile manner & the losses accrued, in the absence of a stop-loss, can be un-imaginable. There are several things happening across the globe constantly, which affect the price movement, direction & volumes in commodity trading, as basically they move in accordance with demand and supply situations & are also greatly affected by the Geo-political scenarios all over. It is not humanly possible to track each & every occurrence, watch out for economic data’s released all around the globe and understand the level of their impacts on the trade movement & direction of all commodities, though you may be constantly updated on most of the developments, most of the time. Many times the reaction or the impact of these developments is so quick & enormous, that large & rapid movements in rates are instantly triggered with high volatility, even before the news on these developments reach all over the world. In such a scenario, you may never know as to what level these trades could go to & the losses (though sustainable by a few) may be very large. These losses are not the only losses that you incur if caught in such a situation – you also miss out on the opportunity, the same commodity is offering, in the opposite direction and also by other trades as most of your attention and funds will now be concentrated and caught up on this particular trade gone wrong. Remember – Growing wealth is important, but safe guarding seed capital is even more important. It’s easier to resist & also absorb losses at the beginning than later.

18] Averaging in loss making positions is a practice which is most commonly seen & generally leads to more dangerous losses. This is also recommended by a number of advisors, but I certainly do not recommend it. In fact I strongly oppose it. Remember – YOU are incurring the loss & not your advisor.

19] Putting all your eggs in one or a couple of baskets could prove to be more dangerous for the day trader. Having a wider investment or a trading spectrum would be more effective. All entered trades may never go wrong simultaneously but a stray one or two could and what, if you have traded in only those? It may also happen that the 1 or 2 trades that you have entered into, have moved in the right direction, but have not achieved the expected high results or gains in comparison to the ones you have left out. So it is only advised and not stressed upon – that the trader should take positions in a wider range of trading / investment opportunities to achieve better results.

20] Do not be biased to a particular commodity. Look at all commodities (having healthy trading volumes) only as profit generating opportunities & not at the English name or Social status of the commodity.

21] Always remember -“You cannot use yesterday’s ideas for today’s business and expect to be in business tomorrow”. Be ready to accept and implement change immediately and constantly as “Change” is the only factor that’s constant in the world – everything else keeps changing and its meaning is all the more true in these highly volatile and ever-changing market scenarios.

Adherence to the above is sincerely recommended to trade and achieve gains in these ever volatile Speculative Trade Markets.

What is a TMS? (Transportation Management System)

Transportation Management System (TMS) – What is it?

A Transportation Management System is software that helps businesses manage the execution of its logistics supply chain, in particular coordinating and optimizing the movement of products and materials.

The general functions and benefits of a TMS include the following:

Shipment Load Planning and Shipment Routing Optimization – This functionality helps in areas such as determining the most cost effective mode to ship an order (truckload, ltl, air freight, intermodal, etc.), or the optimal way to combine multiple orders together into larger shipments. Carrier rate agreements and contracts are often housed within this area as well.

Routing Guide – Helping to ensuring vendor compliance to inbound routing guides is crucial to cost management. Centralizing the routing instructions for a company with multiple shipping locations can improve compliance.

Execution Management and Carrier Communication – This includes tools for assisting with carrier selection, calculating shipments costs (including line-haul, fuel surcharges, and accessorial charges), tendering loads and facilitating carrier communication (bills of lading and proof of delivery).

Visibility/ Shipment Tracking – Providing delivery status updates and alerts, this tool allows proactive program management and notice of potential delivery problems in advance.

Freight Bill Audit & Payment – Automating the freight audit and payment process, saving time and improving accuracy, or ending reliance on an outside third party. It is estimated that performing regular freight invoice audits can save 4-5% in transportation costs per year.

Other functions:

Business Intelligence/ Reporting

Claims Management

Returns Management

Appointment Scheduling

TMS systems are can be deployed on client’s systems or on-demand SaaS (Software as a Service).

What Strategic Land Investors Need to Know About Water and House Building in the UK

Downpour is just the same old thing new to England. In any case, the rate at which it falls might be. Why? Environmental change may well be a variable in the surges that immersed parts of the UK in the winter of 2013-2014. A study out of Oxford University reported in The Guardian (April 2014) shows that “significantly more incessant serious surges for occupants of the swarmed locale, with what were once amazingly uncommon occasions [are] now happening a great deal more regularly than the base of the area is prepared for.”

This comes during an era when constructing new homes is basic to the nation. More homes mean more streets, all the more parking garages and more rooftops, elements that avoid normal retention of water. In any case, urban organizers, scene planners, regions and developers are reacting fittingly. They are exhibiting that groups and homes can be intended to alleviate stormwater and the harm it can bring about.

For instance, on both a for each home and more extensive group premise, methods to channel stormwater toward normal penetration of water to the aquifer incorporate downpour gardens and bioswales. The UK building firm HR Wallingford, a natural hydrodynamics association, has done broad work with soakaways, trenches and bowls that involve penetration outline. The firm likewise performs spillover and stormwater stockpiling examinations and constructs water collecting frameworks that customers can use to spare water for arranging and other non-consumable utilizations in drier eras.

These sorts of devices break the twentieth century advancement worldview that most normally directed tempest water through dark framework, concrete and metal pipes that introduced far from homes and organizations to regular streams and waterways or to city treatment offices. Experience demonstrates those frameworks are deficient in substantial precipitation and with developing populaces.

For the improvement financial specialist, for example, those working through genuine resource reserve administrators, this can at times decipher into higher advancement costs. What’s more, at times not – each site is one of a kind and once in a while a maintainable water-administration framework can be less expensive than “dim base” that depends on conventional channels. In any case, notwithstanding when the expenses are more noteworthy, it can interpret into more significant property and lower property protection costs over the more extended term. Calls to the National Flood Forum (NFF) philanthropy tripled by mid 2014, a consequence of the flooding occasions of the former winter. It was not uncommon for a property holder to see a multiplying of his or her premiums (e.g., to £2,000/year) while one little business proprietor reported a yearly premium ascent from £4,000 to £25,000. A more brilliant configuration for new-form groups could maintain a strategic distance from that.

Printing False Hope in a False Reality

Western, particularly U.S., values have turned into the main assumption pointer for the masses. Keeping in mind the masses are not as a matter of course taking part, a more intensive take a gander at this false sunrise uncovers that the ascent of value purchasing frenzy may really be the main negative feeling marker.

As yet becoming tied up with the business sector are just the individuals who still have an occupation with a coordinating 401K, and a more noteworthy extent of these people are simply gathering the match and holding it in “safe” mode.

The value markets have turned into the same then Social Security. A large portion of us don’t trust it will be there when we require it and, in this manner, hate the framework which compels us to take part. The base of this Ponzi is rapidly disintegrating and the top is turning out to be more lopsided by the day.

It appears that not a day passes by without an expansive or celebrated asset supervisor leaving the woodwork with a notice about what is going to go down. It is as though those in the matter of overseeing other individuals’ cash are in ‘spread thy back’ mode. At the point when there is no more an approach to benefit from the mediation, it’s an ideal opportunity to leave the amusement.

This has been the best session of control, burglary, insider exchanging, and general defilement ever. Furthermore, I’m not simply discussing silver and gold paper markets. Values are casualty to the same key marvels. What is much all the more astonishing is nobody has taken a gander at the corporate purchase backs. On the other hand edge obligation levels.

Too bad, you can talk till you are in the face. Yet, the normal speculator won’t act until you say “when” with enough conviction that urges activity. It’s a terrible mindset – an aggregate conviction that we can’t in any way, shape or form comprehend these business sectors.

In all actuality, officials and executives are issued investment opportunities. At that point they approve purchase backs so the choices get to be in the cash. They are horribly advanced. Their organizations did not need to make an item, utilize individuals, or profit. All they needed to do was get cash at “zero” then purchase their stock.

The requests are done at the business sector and they (a hefty portion of whom happen to likewise be the dealers) stream orders through and front run the business sector with their own particular alternative purchasing. What’s maybe considerably more mind boggling is that they get the chance to keep it all – notwithstanding when they at last crash.

Officials are propelled by quarterly income and stock valuation. The Fed has control of the securities exchanges through the E-small prospects, sticking them higher like a commendation meter, or when they need resource costs higher.

They should simply hit the electronic purchase catch, compel the prospects to a premium, and the HFT will assume control from that point.

The general population of the world can’t win enthusiasm on their reserve funds, nor is the occupation market enhancing anyplace aside from in the dream longs for the controlled media organized by the Central Banks/organizers.

“Muppet” has turned into the harsh term the savvy cash utilizes for the retail financial specialist.

The declining number of Muppets will put resources into values (while the Jamie Dimons of the world keep on churning the business sector seeking after the subtle departure speed that can’t come if the Muppets won’t, or can’t, to play along).

They are all simply searching and seeking after that chance to purchase low and offer to a Muppet at a higher cost; be it in a nanosecond, 60 minutes, or a day. No worth included. Nothing. Basic riches redistribution subordinate upon trepidation and insatiability.

It’s not precisely nonsensical. Those mindful know precisely what they’re about – a pump and dump kindness of the Fed.

1. Use ZIRP to load organizations up on obligation to back stock buybacks at a few times basics.

2. Get clear into something liable to keep up its esteem regardless of what (viz. Russian values).

3. Watch the enjoyment as the accident thumps a decent 20 percent off private segment compensation (before duties) and wipes out what stays of the proles’ total assets, life investment funds and benefits.

By far most are as yet trimming their link bill down and choosing shading their hair or purchasing basic supplies for the week. In any case, the keen cash group is still driven by the legends – the huge multifaceted investments or security reserves. In this way, they will undoubtedly stay inside acknowledged tradition keeping in mind the end goal to ensure themselves against obligation.

It’s ludicrous, yet the ordinary perspective of portfolio administration has likewise been discreetly invaded and laid hold of by value execution – from a dealer’s viewpoint – not a quality financial specialist. Along these lines, taking into account value execution, the metals have performed inadequately.

Obviously, a snappy take a gander at the basic essentials uncovers a stunning detach. Yet, a legit answer to the inquiry concerning the reasonable estimation of valuable metals would require yet another offbeat view that once in a while advances into a cash supervisor’s reasoning – that of control.

Items Not Valid for Foreign Exchange (FX) in the Nigerian FX Markets

In an attempt to sustain the stability of the Foreign Exchange (FX) Market and ensure efficient utilization of Foreign Exchange for the derivation of optimum benefits from goods and services imported into Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently issued a new directive in a circular it distributed.

The directive exempts some imported goods and services from the list of items eligible to access FX at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange markets in order to foster and support local production of these items in the country.

The implication of this development is that importers desiring to import any of the items listed in the aforementioned CBN’s directive would be required to source for FX funds without any recourse to the Nigerian Foreign Exchange market (Interbank market and BBN Intervention).

The list of the affected items are outlined below but may be reviewed as the need arises. However, please note that the importation of these items are not banned.

The items include the following:

Rice
Cement
Margarine
Palm kernel/Palm oil products/vegetables oils
Meat and processed meat products
Vegetables and processed vegetable products
Poultry chicken, eggs, turkey
Private air-planes/jets
Indian incense
Tinned fish in sauce(Geisha)/sardines
Cold rolled steel sheets
Galvanized steel sheets
Roofing sheets
Wheelbarrows
Head pans
Metal boxes and containers
Enamelware
Steel drums
Steel pipes
Wire rods(deformed and not deformed)
Iron rods and reinforcing bard
Wire mesh
Steel nails
Security and razor wine
Wood particle boards and panels
Wood Fibre Boards and Panels
Plywood boards and panels
Wooden doors
Toothpicks
Glass and Glassware
Kitchen utensils
Tableware
Tiles-vitrified and ceramic
Textiles
Woven fabrics
Clothes
Plastic and rubber products, polypropylene granules, cellophane wrappers
Soap and cosmetics
Tomatoes/tomato pastes
Eurobond/foreign currency bond/ share purchases

In our view, we understand Share Purchases (item 40 in the list) to be referring to Nigerians who access the foreign exchange market to invest in foreign securities and not foreign investors who inflow funds into Nigeria for the purposes of investment.

The CBN stated this was in a bid to sustain the stability of the foreign exchange market and ensure the efficient utilization of foreign exchange whilst encouraging local production of these items. The CBN also stated clearly that importation of these items are not banned, however importers of these items shall do so using their own funds without recourse to the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Markets.

The implication of this is that there will be reduced demand on the official market which means reduced pressure on the official FX market. However, there will be increased pressure on the parallel Market (Bureau de Change). The gap between the parallel and the official market will widen and the rate for dollars in the parallel market will increase. This will also lead to an increase in the cost of these items locally for consumers and ultimately inflation.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s excluded some foreign products and services from the list of item qualified to get Foreign currencies at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange markets.

The effect of this directive is that businesses craving to import any of the delisted items would no longer be able to access foreign currencies from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange market in order to pay for the imported consignments.

First Steps in Understanding Volume Analysis and How It Leads Price

Fundamentally, volume is an estimation device that mirrors the general movement in an instrument in light of the quantity of purchasers and venders in the business sector. As it were, volume demonstrates the energy of purchasers or dealers amid a predefined period, and additionally the liquidity of the instrument. Despite the fact that volume might be shown distinctively on diagrams, it is commonly shown as a solitary, non-directional, histogram which speaks to the aggregate number of purchasers and merchants for a given period. Non-directional implies that as cost is making higher highs or lower lows, the volume bars will regularly be making new highs.

Average volume pointers speak to the general number of purchasers or merchants for each predetermined bar. A dealer may take a gander at this kind of volume representation to assess the liquidity of the instrument. This lets him know or her whether there is adequate action to empower one to enter or leave a position effortlessly.

Volume can likewise be shown as Volume Up (purchasers) or Volume Down (merchants). This sort of volume bar demonstrates the volume showed as two separate pointers, Volume Up (green histogram bars) and Volume Down (red histogram bars). By showing volume in this way, a merchant can contrast the purchasing volume with the offering volume for a predefined period.

By looking at the two volume shows, a broker can survey whether there is more energy appeared by the purchasers or by the merchants amid a predefined period. In an uptrend, purchasers ought to have more eagerness than dealers. At the point when a business sector achieves a top, purchasers will lose excitement and venders will assume control. In a downtrend, venders ought to have more energy than purchasers. At the base, venders will lose energy and purchasers will assume control.

The greatest issue for new dealers, when contemplating volume, is recognizing these particular examples – or volume dissimilarity as it is alluded to. The initial step is straightforward – understanding volume dissimilarity.

Volume uniqueness is when cost goes in one bearing and volume goes the other way. For instance, a couple sorts of volume dissimilarity that are uncovered when utilizing a non-directional volume marker (all volume histogram bars are plotted over a zero line):

Cost is making a higher highs

Volume is making lower highs

Cost is making approach highs

Volume is making higher highs

Cost is making lower lows

Volume is making higher lows

Cost is making level with lows

Volume is making higher lows

At the point when volume dissimilarity is recognized, then the merchant can expect a prompt fleeting inversion. For instance, when volume uniqueness happens on the highs, the dealer would envision an inversion to test for merchants. With the goal cost should invert and make a downtrend, venders must show interest. On the off chance that no interest is appeared, then cost will proceed on its unique way.

Similarly as with most other exchanging markers, volume can be as mind boggling or as basic as a merchant makes it. Today, there are numerous sorts of volume markers accessible. Some depend on midpoints of genuine exchanges of purchasers versus venders over a predefined period. Others depend on request stream, an estimation of purchasers versus merchants from real request stream. Some are more confounded than others and there is nobody volume pointer that is enchanted. The viability of a volume pointer is more needy upon how well the merchant can comprehend and translate the volume at any given period than on the marker itself.

How A CTA May Use Volatility To Set Protective Stops

A non-high-tech measure of *historical volatility is given by the range of market prices over the course of a trading interval, this is usually a day or a week. The range of prices is defined as the difference between the high and the low for that given trading interval. If the range of the current day lies beyond the range of the previous day (Gap- up or down) the current days range must include the distance between the current days range and yesterday’s close. This is what is referred to as the “True Range”. The true range for a gap-down day is the difference between yesterday’s settlement price and today’s low. On the flip side, the true range for a gap-up day is the difference between today’s high and the previous day’s settlement price.

To grind this down a bit further, a tick is the smallest increment by which prices can move in a given futures or commodity market. The next step would be to translate the dollar value for 1 tick in the given market being traded, (Ex: The minimum tick value in corn futures is $12.50 or ¼ cent). To use corn data as an example, data shows that 90 percent of all observations between 2004- 2014 had a daily true range equal to or less than 26 ¼ cents. Therefore a CTA who was long corn futures, may want to set a protective sell stop 26 ¼ cents below the previous days close, as the probability of being whip-sawed out of the market are 1 in 10. Similarly, a CTA who had short sold corn would want to set their stop at least 26 ¼ cents above the previous day’s closing price. The dollar value for this stop would be $1,312.50 per contract, in corn.

Now, instead of concentrating on the true range for a day or a week, it may be more suitable and efficient for a CTA to work with the average true range over the past “N” trading sessions, wherein “N” is any number found to be most effective through back testing their trading methodology (Ex: 9 days, 20 days, 4 weeks, etc.). The theory is that the range for the past “N” periods is a more reliable and consistent indicator of volatility as compared to the true range from the immediately preceding trading session. An example would be to calculate the average true range over the past 20 trading sessions in corn futures and to use this number for placing protective stops. As an aside, this philosophy could be flipped around and be used for entry, which I’ll cover in a future article.

As one last example this average true range methodology could be slightly modified by working with a fraction or multiple of the volatility estimate. Ex: A CTA might want to set their protective stop equal to 150 percent of the average true range for the past “N” trading sessions, (The famous Turtle traders used this methodology by taking the 20-day average true range and then setting their stops equal to 200 percent or 2x this number). The theory is that the fraction or multiple enhances and increases the probability of not being taken out of a valid trade due to market “noise”.

*Historical Volatility – HV’ is the realized volatility of a financial instrument over a given time period. Generally, this measure is calculated by determining the average deviation from the average price of a financial instrument in the given time period.

How Many Mental Blocks To Investing Do You Have? Is a Managed Account the Answer?

Normal CTA’s, financial specialists, and individuals by and large have a mind-boggling longing to be “correct”. Who likes to not be right? You read and hear it consistently from companions, kindred merchants, (mates), that it is so vital to be correct, particularly when they make a business sector forecast or, far more atrocious when they put genuine cash into an exchange.

The measure of data which a normal CTA is presented to and needs to handle every day is stunning. Furthermore, the investigative certainty is that the human personality can just concentrate on one thing at once and take in just such a great amount of data before it is lost. That is the manner by which proficient Magicians/”Road Hustlers” bring home the bacon – Misdirection. They get your mind concentrated on one-thing while they’re pulling off their terrific dream without you notwithstanding having the scarcest intimation how they did it. Accordingly we have a tendency to create “alternate routes” to speculation and picturing helping us adapt to the huge number of data we are constantly presented to. These “alternate ways” are extremely valuable under most circumstances, however the suggestions for speculators or CTA’s of this mentalities can be most hindering, and make the likelihood of being effective in the business sectors for all intents and purposes zero, unless he or she can manage these “trolls”. The “trolls” I am alluding to are mental predispositions which are a piece of everybody’s make-up and out and out human instinct, and there are 13 (fortunate number), of them which I will list for you and give a brief clarification.

#1: Reliability Bias: This is an inclination where a man may accept something to be precise when it conceivably may not be. Illustration: Statistics and data you may use for back-testing or that comes to you crosswise over CNBC, Bloomberg, or the web are all the time loaded with mistakes. Unless you can get up in the morning and realize that the likelihood for terrible information and deception can and exists, it will set you up to make incalculable mistakes in your exchanging and contributing choices.

#2: Lotto Bias: Every CTA or speculator where it counts needs to “control” the business sectors and particularly value activity, thus most absolutely concentrate on “Passage”, where they can constrain the business sector to do a ton of things before they hop in. Be that as it may, once the position is set up, value activity is going to do what it will do. As Ed Seykota said: The brilliant tenet to exchanging is “Cut misfortunes, Cut misfortunes, Cut misfortunes, and afterward you may have a shot”.

#3: Representation Bias: CTA’s and financial specialists will accept that when something should speak to something else, that it is reality. Along these lines they accept that a day by day candle graph is the whole market or that a Fibonacci number is the whole picture. Rather, that is truly only an alternate way to interpreting a mess of data.

#4: Randomness Bias: Investor’s and some CTA’s affection to expect that the business sector is irregular and has numerous examples (twofold bottoms, Head and shoulders, Spikes, and so forth.) that are effectively tradable. Nonetheless, as I would see it the business sectors are not arbitrary. Value circulation shows that after some time markets have a vast difference, or what folks with PHD’s. call “long tails” toward the end of a Bell Curve. What they neglect to comprehend is that even “irregular markets” can have long “streaks” and therefore attempting to pick tops and bottoms can be a street to calamity.

#5: Law-of-little numbers Bias: CTA’s, financial specialists and merchants alike tend to see “designs” where truly none exist, and in all actuality it just takes maybe a couple events of this “example” to demonstrate and persuade a man that it is a “truth”. When you make a mixed drink of this specific inclination, with a Conservatism Bias (read underneath) it could make a virtual tinderbox prepared to go up on fire.

#6: Conservatism Bias: Once a broker or CTA trusts they have found an “example” and is persuaded it works (by method for filtering out or specific memory), they will do everything under the sun to stay away from situations, circumstances, and affirmation that it doesn’t work.

#7: A “Need-to-Understand” Bias: Every CTA or dealer has a need to endeavor to make request out of value activity in the business sectors and discover a basis and purpose for it. This exertion, to “discover request” will impede that CTA’s capacity to take the path of least resistance or take after the pattern on the grounds that, for absence of a superior expression, see what they need to see as opposed to what is genuinely happening before their eyes.

These are the initial 7 out of 13 exchanging/contributing inclinations that numerous CTA’s and merchants are inclined to. Once more, it is incorporated with our DNA and is human instinct. Knowing and acknowledging them is the primary key to opening the way to better contributing and change. I will catch up tomorrow with the rest of the 6 inabilities to think straight that might keep you away from above normal returns in the business sectors.